[Feature] 2008 Academy Award Predictions

The Academy Awards are always an exciting event, and my favorite among all of the award ceremonies in a given year. I was a little nervous in the beginning of the year because the prolonged writer's strike left the show's fate in jeopardy (no writers would equal no traditional ceremony), but it looks like we're ok to go on that front. It's especially exciting this year because some of the major categories have no clear-cut frontrunners while many of the categories have all but locked down winners (which means more chances for upsets). And of course, the always funny Jon Stewart is hosting.

I do this every year, but I make my predictions beforehand based on buzz, results of other awards shows leading up to the Oscars, and my opinions on who should win based on the films and performances I have seen. This year I feel pretty good about my picks, but we shall see how embarrassingly off I am on the night of the awards, because upsets are bound to happen. Here are, without further ado, my predictions for the main categories.

Best Picture
Nominees:
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement had the most buzz very early on in the season, heading into the Golden Globes with the most nominations of any movie this year. Then somewhere along the way, momentum got lost. The film is still nominated for 7 Oscars, but it was snubbed for the main acting categories for its stars Keira Knightley and James McAvoy, as well as for its director Joe Wright. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood have picked up steam where Atonement has lost it, and they are the two most likely in this category to win. If there is a split between Academy voters for those two films, there is a slight chance Juno could sneak in and take it, but like Little Miss Sunshine of last year, that will probably be unlikely.
Should win: Juno (for its critical and mass appeal and success)
Will win: No Country for Old Men



Best Actor
Nominees:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeny Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

This is the only category where the 4 other nominees should just feel honored to have been nominated in the first place. Daniel Day-Lewis, the reclusive actor who only chooses to make one film every couple of years, has pretty much won every acting award this season for his performance as a greedy oil tycoon. George Clooney received the best reviews of his career for Michael Clayton, so if by some miracle Day-Lewis doesn’t win, Clooney will. But the chances of that happening are slim to none.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis



Best Actress
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: the Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Julie Christie has swept most of the awards in this category for her performance as an Alzheimer’s patient in Away From Her. But unlike the Best Actor category where Daniel Day-Lewis is a shoo-in, there is a good chance the award can go to 2 other actresses in this category. Christie’s strongest contender is French actress Marion Cotillard, who won international raves for her performance as troubled French singer Edith Piaf. She also was a surprise winner at last night's BAFTAs (the UK equivalent of the Oscars), which is a good indicator of the actual Oscars. Cotillard would have a better chance if a) more people saw the movie, and b) if the movie was better than it actually is (my review here). 20-year old Ellen Page fully embodies the character of Juno in the movie of the same name, and she has a good chance of taking the award. But Academy voters usually don’t award comedies or comedic performances, even though her performance is strong enough.
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Will Win: Julie Christie



Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Again, like the Best Actor category, there’s not much speculation for Best Supporting Actor. Javier Bardem has won pretty much every thing under the sun for his performance in No Country For Old Men. Everyone else should just practice their “It’s an honor just to be nominated…” speech. However, if anyone can take the award from Bardem, Ben’s little bro Casey probably has the best chance. He had two strong performances this year, in The Assassination of.. as well as in Gone Baby Gone. The Academy might decide to reward him for it, but it’s unlikely.
Should Win: Javier Bardem
Will Win: Javier Bardem



Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

This is probably the most unpredictable category, where at least 4 of the nominees have a good chance of winning. Cate Blanchett I think has the strongest chance, helped by her recent Golden Globe win, also because she won’t win Best Actress, so the Academy will probably reward her in this category instead. I wouldn’t count out Ruby Dee, who just won the SAG for her performance in American Gangster, and of course, having a legendary status always seems to help. Saorise Ronan is probably too young, though her character/performance is central to everything that happens in Atonement. Tilda Swinton just won the BAFTA for her performance in Michael Clayton, but that's the only major award she's won in this category. That leaves Amy Ryan, who has had buzz building around her for her performance in Gone Baby Gone. But aside from winning a couple of national critic’s choice awards, she lost out on the Golden Globe and the SAG, which doesn't bode well, but who knows.
Should Win: Amy Ryan
Will Win: Cate Blanchett



Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Ethan and Joel Cohen, No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Cohen brothers’ film took top honors at both the DGAs and the SAGs, so they probably have the best chance at winning. The Academy could also go with Anderson, whose film has been critically hailed all around (much to the strength of Daniel Day-Lewis’s performance). The dark horse here is Julian Schnabel, for his critically acclaimed (ok, so all these films are critically acclaimed) vision, and because he was the surprise nominee in this category.
Should Win: The Cohen Brothers
Will Win: The Cohen Brothers



Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

This is one of my favorite categories. Like I’ve said before, you can make a bad movie out of a good screenplay, but you simply can’t make a good movie with a bad screenplay to begin with. I know I keep making these Little Miss Sunshine-Juno parallels, but the movies have so much in common- indie darlings turned modest mainstream hits, uncharacteristic Best Picture nominees, and after the night of Feb 25th, both Best Original Screenplay winners. Much of the movie’s praise comes from Cody’s funny and tight script, and she has become one of the most buzzed about stars in Hollywood because of it. Gilroy would have the next best chance for Michael Clayton, but expect Cody to win this.
Should Win: Diablo Cody
Will Win: Diablo Cody