Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Predicting the Oscar Nominations

Tomorrow morning, actor Forest Whitaker will announce the Oscar nominations, to be handed out at the 81st ceremony on Feb. 22. Predicting the nominations is just as fun as predicting the winners, and I'm gonna go out on a limb here and attempt to do that. Check back here tomorrow and see if I should quit my day job and make a living predicting stuff like this, or if I should be hiding under a rock because I was so off. Most of the nominations in each category is a lock, so there shouldn't be much suspense as to who and what might be nominated, but you never know with the Oscars.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight


Slumdog Millionaire
I am pretty sure Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog will all be nominated. The elusive 5th spot is the toss up. I think The Dark Knight will take it becayse even though it is a summer blockbuster/superhero movie (which is normally not an Oscar type film), it was such a smash with critics and movie-goers alike. Revolutionary Road, Doubt, and Wall-E can all sneak in here, but I think Wall-E will just have to settle for a Best Animated Film nomination/win.

Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
I also think this category is pretty set, unless Sam Mendes sneaks in here for Revolutionary Road (probably not), or Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky (more likely, but also probably not). Who might an upset replace? With the exception of Boyle (who is going to win this), anyone can be switched out.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood, Gran Tarino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Sorry Leo, but you are not getting a nom this year. There's a slight chance Clint Eastwood will be looked over, but because he will probably not be nominated in the Best Picture or Best Director categories (for either Changeling and Gran Tarino), the Academy will recognize him here. Hey, no one said it was fair.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
The only person I'm not sure of here is Angelina Jolie, because Changeling sort of fell off the radar. If she doesn't get a nom, Kristin Scott of I've Loved You So Long will.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Um. They should just have 1 spot for this award this year, cause Heath is going to win. But, since they have to like play by the rules and stuff, this is how it's going to happen. If it wasn't for Heath's Joker, I would've said Robert Downey Jr. would've taken it (OMG he was so great in Tropic Thunder), but alas, everyone else should just be "glad" to have been nominated. Especially Dev Patel, who is a relative newcomer. And yes, I know he is the lead actor of Slumdog, but a) he shares his role in the film with 2 other actors and b) he has a better chance of being nominated as a Supporting Actor, so the studio built his Oscar campaign around that.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
This is the category I am least confident about. Penelope, Viola, Marisa, and Kate are 90% likely to get nominations. I don't know if Amy Adams will get it. I think she has a slightly better chance than Tariji Henson (Ben Button) or Rosemarie DeWitt who is the Rachel in Rachel Getting Married. But considering it is totally Anne Hathaway's movie, that will probably be the only acting nomination that movie will get.


songhyunah said...

i think we both know that if you could make a career out of watching movies, summing it up & dumbing it down for us unedumacated folk & predicting nominations, YOU would own it. ;P